5. 總結
本文嘗試了整合技術、國際貿易和全球價值鏈文獻，并基于當下全球化、生產(chǎn)活動碎片化和無形資產(chǎn)貿易增長的趨勢發(fā)展出一套整合了產(chǎn)品貿易和無形資產(chǎn)貿易的國際貿易分析框架。通過深入討論五種無形資產(chǎn)貿易的模式，本文發(fā)展出一套基于全球價值鏈的國際貿易統(tǒng)計框架。把這個框架應用于美國貿易收支計算，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)考慮無形資產(chǎn)貿易后， 2016年美國的貿易凈收支（包括產(chǎn)品、知識產(chǎn)權、保險和金融服務、計算機通訊和其他服務，以2%收益率和總OFDI和無形資產(chǎn)密集行業(yè)FDI歷史存量計算的無形資產(chǎn)凈收益，以及蘋果公司的非美國部分收入）為3963.8億美元逆差，比 7499.3億美元僅以產(chǎn)品貿易計算的逆差減少了近一半；2015年美國貿易凈收支為3971.5億美元逆差，而不是7625.7億美元。如果我們進一步加入除蘋果公司外的包含在外包中的無形資產(chǎn)貿易，美國的貿易逆差應當更小。因此，本文認為國際貿易不平衡與相應的政策措施應當基于完整的包括21世紀多種貿易活動在內的統(tǒng)計框架來討論。
本文的貿易統(tǒng)計框架提供了一種幫助我們理解21世紀更廣的貿易圖景的方法。產(chǎn)品貿易，甚至產(chǎn)品加服務貿易，不再是描述貿易關系的好的指標。無形資產(chǎn)貿易的各種模式和渠道需要被納入到這個大的貿易圖景中來。一種可能的解決方法是整合數(shù)字技術和可靠的公司自申報系統(tǒng)。比如，我們可以用物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術鏈接各種投入和產(chǎn)出，然后用大數(shù)據(jù)技術對比不同來源數(shù)據(jù)的準確性和可靠性，以及填補中間的數(shù)據(jù)空白。而國際合作是建立標準和執(zhí)行對于新框架的使用和數(shù)據(jù)收集的可行性和可靠性的重要保障。
本文的研究具有重要的政策意義。第一，本文的研究為如何更好的測度全球化做出了貢獻。全球化不應當僅僅根據(jù)產(chǎn)品、投資和服務的互動和一體化來測度，還應該包含追蹤和測度起來更加復雜的無形資產(chǎn)的流動。
第二，本文為全球化的影響的爭論和更包容的全球化政策做出了貢獻。近年，全球化被認為是導致發(fā)達國家不平等問題的罪魁禍首。反全球化浪潮出現(xiàn)在一些主流的工業(yè)化國家。產(chǎn)品的國際貿易成為了攻擊對象。貿易和投資保護主義在不斷抬頭。本文的研究表明全球經(jīng)濟失衡并不像商品貿易所表現(xiàn)出來的那么嚴重。實際上，工業(yè)化國家有巨大的無形資產(chǎn)順差。但是問題是，無形資產(chǎn)貿易帶來的巨大收益集中在少數(shù)的所有者和一小部分創(chuàng)造這些無形資產(chǎn)的研究技術人員手里。所以，對于工業(yè)化國家來說，無形資產(chǎn)貿易獲得巨大利益的團體與社會其他人群之間的是減少不平等的重要措施。并且應當禁止跨境避稅行為。
最后，本文的研究對貿易不平衡做出了貢獻。我們應該從更加整體的角度，從全球價值鏈的視角來思考國際貿易的問題。解決工業(yè)化國家（如美國）和發(fā)展中國家（如中國）之間的貿易不平衡問題的政策工具應當是基于真實的完整的貿易活動。根據(jù)本文的分析，中美真實的貿易逆差比大眾認知的3570億美元低很多。因此，減少逆差的談判基礎應當考慮到這個問題。同時，無形資產(chǎn)出口應當被當做一種政策工具納入兩國政府的考量，而不僅僅是高技術產(chǎn)品的出口。
未來的研究應當進一步發(fā)展這個基于全球價值鏈網(wǎng)絡的貿易模型，建立必要的數(shù)據(jù)收集系統(tǒng)、標準和國際數(shù)據(jù)庫，從主要的全球價值鏈到所有全球價值鏈，再到所有類型的全球價值鏈和不基于全球價值鏈的貿易，分析國家在全球價值鏈上的位置如何影響他們獲取和分享增加值的能力，分享最近的工業(yè)革命如何快速的改變全球價值鏈的形態(tài)和國家在其上的位置，以及分析這次工業(yè)革命如何影響國家間的價值分配、收入分配、發(fā)展中國家的升級，還有分析哪些政策制度對于無形資產(chǎn)和產(chǎn)品整體貿易框架的健康運行是必要的，最后還有分析IPR保護的角色和確?？煽康?、有益的數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)生和分享所需的監(jiān)管。
參考文獻
Alcacer,J., & Oxley, J. (2014). Learning by supplying. Strategic ManagementJournal, 35(2), 204-223.
Antràs, P.,(2003). Firms, Contracts, and Trade Structure. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, 118(4), pp.1375-1418.
Balassa, B.,(1986). Intra-industry specialization: a cross-country analysis. EuropeanEconomic Review, 30(1), pp.27-42.
Baldwin,R. E., & Evenett, S. J. (2015). Value creation and trade in 21st centurymanufacturing. Journal of Regional Science, 55(1),31-50.
Baldwin, R. andRobert-Nicoud, F., (2014). Trade-in-goods and trade-in-tasks: An integratingframework. Journal of International Economics, 92(1),pp.51-62.
Baldwin, R., and A. Venables (2013): “Spidersand Snakes: Offshoring and Agglomeration in the Global Economy,” Journal ofInternational Economics, 90 (2), 245–254.
Blinder, A. (2006). Offshoring: The Next IndustrialRevolution? Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 113-128. doi:10.2307/20031915
Constantinescu,I. C., Mattoo, A., Mulabdic, A., & Ruta, M. (2018). Global trade watch 2017: trade defies policy uncertainty - will itlast? (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/Global-trade-watch-2017-trade-defies-policy-uncertainty-will-it-last
Corrado, C. A.,Haskel, J., Jona Lasinio, C., & Iommi, M. (2012). Intangible capital andgrowth in advanced economies: Measurement and comparative results.Publisher:Imperial College Business School, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/9913
Gereffi, G., Humphrey, J., & Sturgeon, T. (2005).The governance of global value chains. Review of internationalpolitical economy, 12(1), 78-104.
Grossman, G. M., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2012). Tasktrade between similar countries.Econometrica, 80(2),593-629.
Grossman, G.M. and Rossi-Hansberg, E., (2008). Tradingtasks: A Simple Theory Of Offshoring. American Economic Review, 98(5),pp.1978-97.
Guvenen, F., Mataloni, R. J., Rassier, D. G., Ruhl, K.J. (2018) ‘Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement’,NBER Working Paper No. 23324.
Haskel, J.,& Westlake, S. (2017). Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of theIntangible Economy. Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford.
IMF (2017).Balance of Payment Statistics Yearbook: 2017,International Monetary Fund.
Helpman, E., Krugman, P., 1985.Market Structure and Foreign Trade. MITPress, Cambridge, MA.
Kaplinsky, R.(2000). Globalisation and unequalisation: What can be learned from value chainanalysis? Journal of development studies, 37(2),117-146.
Krugman, P.(1991). Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of politicaleconomy, 99(3), 483-499.
Krugman, P.R.,1981. Intra-industry Specialization and the Gains from Trade. Journalof Political Economy, 89(5), pp.959-973.
Krugman, P. R.(1979). Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and internationaltrade. Journal of international Economics, 9(4),469-479.
Krugman,P., Cooper, R. N., & Srinivasan, T. N. (1995). Growing world trade: causesand consequences. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1995(1),327-377.
Lancaster, K.,(1980). Intra-industry Trade Under Perfect Monopolistic Competition. Journalof International Economics, 10(2), pp.151-175.
Leamer, E.(1995). The Heckscher-Ohlin Model in Theory and Practice.International Economics Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University.
Markusen, J.R.and Venables, A.J., (2000). The theory of endowment, intra-industry andmulti-national trade. Journal of International Economics, 52(2),pp.209-234.
Milberg, W. (2004). The changing structure of tradelinked to global production systems: what are the policy implications? InternationalLabour Review, 143(1‐2), 45-90.
Melitz, M.J.,(2003). The impact of trade on intra‐industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity.Econometrica,71(6), pp.1695-1725.
Moris, F. (2017) Intangibles Trade and MNEs:Supply-Chain Trade in R&D Services and Innovative Subsidiaries, Journal ofIndustry, Competition and Trade, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-017-0265-0.
Mu, Q., & Lee, K. (2005). Knowledge diffusion,market segmentation and technological catch-up: The case of the telecommunicationindustry in China. Research policy, 34(6), 759-783.
Mudambi, R. (2008). Location, control and innovationin knowledge-intensive industries. Journalof economic Geography, 8(5), 699-725.
OECD(2013). Interconnected Economies: Benefiting from Global Value Chains.OECD Publishing.
OECD.(2017), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017: Thedigital transformation, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264268821-en.
Reinsdorf,M. B. and Slaughter, M. J. (2009) InternationalTrade in Services and Intangibles in the Era of Globalization, Universityof Chicago Press.
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles ofPolitical Economy and Taxation,London: John Murray.
Rodriguez-Clare, A. (2010). Offshoring in a Ricardian world, AmericanEconomic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2 (2).
Rungi,A., & Del Prete, D. (2018). The smile curve at the firm level: Where valueis added along supply chains. EconomicsLetters, 164, 38-42.
Shih, S. (1992).Empowering technology—making your life easier. Acer’s Report, Acer’s, New Taipei.
Shih, S. (1996).Me-Too Is Not My Style: Challenge Difficulties, Break ThroughBottlenecks, Create Values. The Acer Foundation, Taipei.
Smith, A. (1776).An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. London: George Routledge and Sons.
Sturgeon, T. J. (2001). How do we definevalue chains and production networks? IDS bulletin, 32(3),9-18.
UNCTAD. (2018).Key Statistics and Trendsin International Trade: The Status of World Trade 2017.United Nations: New York and Geneva. http://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=2109
Venables,A.J., (1999). Fragmentation and multinational production. European EconomicReview. 43, 935–945.
Vernon, R. (1966). InternationalInvestment and International Trade in the Product Cycle. The QuarterlyJournal of Economics, 80(2), 190-207.
Walsh, J. P., Lee, Y. N., & Nagaoka,S. (2016). Openness and innovation in the US: Collaboration form, ideageneration and implementation. Research Policy, 45(8),1660-1671.
WIPO (2017).World Intellectual Property Indicators – 2017, WIPO, Switzerland.
World Bank. (2017). World Bank Annual Report 2017 (English). Washington,D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/143021506909711004/World-Bank-Annual-Report-2017
附錄
圖 1A. 中美保險金融服務和ICT服務
（文章來源：牛津大學技術與管理發(fā)展研究中心）
